HI_HorizonNotesheader_7222019

Volatility Declines as Markets Rise

BIG NUMBER
46.4%
(Click the chart below to view and download)

sidebar - RAWHAT IT IS
How far current realized volatility in the S&P 500 Index is below its average over the past year.

MARKET/POLICY NOTES
Comments out of the U.S Federal Reserve bounced the markets around during the week as investors anticipate the growing likelihood of a rate cut. U.S. – China trade talks continued but the impact on stocks was muted.

HOW MARKETS REACTED
Fresh highs in the S&P 500 faded in a slow trading week as investors grappled with earnings and speculated on the Federal Reserve’s next move. The S&P 500 was down 1.2% and ex-US global equities were flat (MXWDU).

WHAT THIS MEANS
Markets appear to have shrugged off trade tensions and interest rate concerns and entered full summer mode while remaining close to all-time highs. Bond yields moved down across the board and credit was quiet.

WHAT TO WATCH
The Fed is in its quiet period so no news there. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and while no rate cut is expected, whispers are building. Outside the ECB, highlights for the week include flash Purchasing Managers’ Index readings in the US, EU, and Japan, and the first look at US Q2 GDP on Friday.

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